The High-Rollers Room: Jon Snow’s Return

Exactly 304 days, 6 hours, 57 minutes, and 45 seconds ago today we lost a a dear friend with a luxurious  mane of hair to the black hand of betrayal.  But here in the high-rollers room we don’t care about the past, we are only looking forward to the future.  Because in exactly 10 days, 23 hours, 4 minutes and, 0 seconds from when I’m writing this sentence the sixth and newest season of Game of Thrones premiers.

So you’ve come here with $100 in your pocket to make a little money the return of the most discussed show to ever be on TV, and that is good, because here in the high-rollers room we really want to take that $100 off of you.  The bet today: when will Jon Snow return to the world of the living in Westeros?  What kind of odds can you get and where should you put your money?  That’s what you’re here to find out.

The Dumb Plays

Over 10.5 Episodes | Odds: +450

So basically the bet here is that Jon Snow comes back to life, just after season 6.  There is some presedence for this to be honest but that precedence is Sherlock a show that prides itself in breaking all the rules.  Sherlockians were begging to know how Holmes survived the Reichenbach fall but it’s been a whole series and a Christmas special and there has been no satisfactory answer.  But it’s a really dumb play.  The show doesn’t benefit at all by having Harrington and Snow sit out an entire season.

Profit: $450 in a years time at least

The good news here is that if Jon Snow really does return in 2017 than you will come out $450 richer including your $100 stake.  Hardly seems worth it though if you ask me.

Over 8.5 Episodes | Odds: +400

Given the odds why even bother?  Essentially betting that Jon Snow makes his return in the 9th, 10th episode of this season means that you’ve basically never watched Game of Thrones something big is going to happen in the 9th episode as it always does.  You are probably saying to yourself, of course that means the revival of Jon Snow at episode nine would be a perfect bet.  But what people don’t seem to remember is that this happened last season:

Jon Snow may seem like the most important part of this show right now.  But the fate of the world rests in the balance, we’ve got some more important shit to worry about, and a 30 episode timeline to worry about it.

Profit $400 in 9-11 weeks

I wouldn’t bother with this, honestly what’s even the point?  The payout is too low and the likelihood is far too high.

For the Risk Takers

Under 1 Episode | Odds +1500

I would not not say it is an impossibility that Jon returns within the first episode but it does seem an very unlikely choice by the writers.  Especially considering the few hints we’ve gotten from the teaser trailers it appears that Davos and the Red Lady have some work–and some killing to do before Jon returns with his flowing locks.  The history of Game of Thrones also doesn’t suggest such a quick resolution.  They dragged out Tyrion’s trial for seven whole episodes.  While now that there is a time limit on the show it is likely to move a bit faster and we won’t get the annual two episode lull around 6 and 7; it’s still 30 episodes and there is no need to rush the story they want to tell.

Profit $1500 in one hour

It’s a lot of money that’s for sure, you could likely turn $100 into $1600 in 59 minutes but what is more likely to happen is you”ll lose that hundred dollars just as fast.

Never | Odds +4000

There are some people who have been spending the last 51 weeks telling everyone that would listen that Jon Snow is definitely dead and that we should all just get used to it.  Those people almost exclusively have two things in common, they haven’t read A Song of Ice and Fire, they don’t really pay attention that well.  The truth is that if Jon Snow is dead there has been little to no point to this–so far–five book epic.  As sad as it was at the Red Wedding when Robb got his shit all fucked up, Robb wasn’t even half as important to the plot as Jon and in the book he’s a secondary maybe even a tertiary character, he’s not even POV in the books.  The truth is, outside of the prologues, no POV character in A Song of Ice and Fire has died since Ned in Game of Thrones.  And while it may masquerade as something  greater underneath all the tits, murder, and political intrigue Game of Thrones  is really just a fairy tale, and every fairy tale needs its Prince Charming to come and save the day.

Profit $4000 in a little over 2 years

The payout is nice, you could easily rake in a nice profit. It’s not going to happen, at all ever, I guarantee you.  Jon Snow will be back, the question is just when and how.

The Safe Bets

Under 3.5 Episodes | Odds +200

The most likely outcome is that Jon Snow is back within the first three episodes.  That way there is some suspense but the show can get down to more important business like killing off Craster’s wintry bastards.  Espeically considering the show left Jaime and Cersei in a very interesting place.  Not to mention, Arya, Davos, Sansa, Tyrion, The Greyjoys, and the much andticipated return of Bran.  They have a lot of interesting stories to cover, and some pretty uninteresting ones too time is most certainly of the essence.

Profit $200 under three weeks

All the excitement of dead fish with the payout of a Thanksgiving poker game with your handsy uncle.